Panic Buying Triggers New Reality for Grocery Supply Chains

We've all seen the wreckage left behind by the first wave of panic buying triggered by the surging COVID-19 pandemic that led to thousands of work-from-home orders, school closures and state-wide lockdowns. Grocery store aisles and display shelves once piled high with toilet paper, hand sanitizer, household cleaners, canned goods, bread and snack foods are now stripped bare, with replenishment changes slim.

At a time when consumers were seeking control, certainty and comfort, supermarkets everywhere fulfilled survivalist instincts with the speed of a superhero and the patience of a saint. But very soon, stores realized – perhaps the first time in recent memory – the challenges of having too much business.

How can grocers bounce back in time to keep up with consumer demand as long as the coronavirus rages on?

A call for redefining supermarket supply chains

As a seasoned veteran of the grocery industry, I have personally survived many moments of manic shopping – including blizzards, holidays and 9/11. But never have I experienced anything like the store traffic and sales volumes that we saw in mid-March. In fact, a former coworker of mine shared that his store was tripling and sometimes quadrupling actual daily sales. 

Without a doubt, the grocery industry is struggling to keep up. Harried store employees help long lines of frustrated consumers while fearing the possibility of contracting the virus, having hours reduced or getting quarantined. And despite companies pulling out all stops to get products back on shelves as quickly as possible, supply chains are still too strained to deliver.

With these realities in mind, the current pandemic is challenging supermarkets to change in ways that could potentially redefine their future for years to come. Here are some of my observations of what’s missing right now:

1. Close collaboration with suppliers

Now more than ever, category managers need to inform their suppliers as soon as possible about potential opportunities and risks that will quickly emerge. 

This level of predictive, real-time visibility and insight can only be delivered through a digitalized infrastructure that immediately captures and analyzes demand signals and automatically monitors economic shifts, triggers safety recalls and alerts suppliers of out-of-stocks. This information can also help determine whether one-half of a truckload or five truckloads are needed to replenish shelves quickly.

2. Optimized inventory control 

In the grocery industry, surprise is the enemy. Managers are typically excellent at determining when demand for certain products peaks and falls, and at knowing the exact moment to get them in stock when consumers want them.

But occasionally, especially when an event such as a new item introduction, promotion or pandemic occurs, the demand cycle breaks down. Unfortunately, this also means that the store could be stuck with excess inventory that won't move until demand returns – which is an expensive reality, considering its razor-thin profit margin.

This is what the industry calls the “bullwhip” in the supply chain. Out-of-stocks are bad, but usually quickly resolved. Meanwhile, excess inventory can plague grocers for months and cost quite a bit of money.

By incorporating data into inventory management processes, supermarkets can eliminate or, at least, reduce the volatility of the bullwhip effect. Grocers can manage their stock much more accurately, which leads to consumer behaviors that are consistent and don't trigger unnecessary hoarding.

3. Openness to new sources